Can Boot Camp Really Give Windows the Boot?
Recently Chris Seibold in his excellent article No Magic Bullet for the Mac, discussed Boot Camp and other developments of late, and their likely affect on the Mac’s personal computer market-share. I want to go a little further and asked the question, just what is the Mac’s maximum market-share? Can Windows be booted altogether?
Whenever Apple comes out with a new product or direction, we Appleites salivate at the prospect of wiping Windows off the face of the Earth. Of course, we know that’s not possible. The only company that can rid us of Windows is Microsoft - either by catastrophic failure or replacing it with a new operating system.
When Boot Camp was released, I spoke to a few of my former peers from my days as an IT manager in a corporate Windows environment. The big question of course was, “Would the release of Boot Camp make you consider Macs running Windows?” Unanimously, they said no. The interesting thing though was it wasn’t just because there is no vendor support for Windows on Macs, but also because they are Macs. There is a wall, conscious or not, up against Macs among my former peers. And I suspect it pervades the whole industry.
These guys represent the segment of the personal computer market that will never switch in any foreseeable future. And that is a very large segment.
Into that segment, you can also put the enormous number of Windows users, both home and business, who would rather stick with the devil they know.
My guess is there is a massive portion of Window’s current user base, that will never change to a non-Microsoft operating system, barring total MS-Disaster.
So why does Apple bother? Because it’s primary goal is viability. Any increase in market-share that is not costly to bring about and maintain, is good for viability.
So the question of market-share is not about the whole market, because that’s impossible. Rather it’s about the potential market, all those fringe-dwellers who might switch.
I’ve drawn a little heat-graph, that although not showing any figures, paints a visual image of how small Apple’s potential new customer base is. It is not scaled accurately though. If it were, the entire Apple circle would have had a diameter the width of the letters “ealo” in the word zealots - and the potential switchers circle would have been proportionally resized.
The next time Apple switches processor manufacturer, adds a mouse button, releases an MS-Office killer, adds virtualization technology to its operating system, you will here the whoops and hollers again, but remember this graph because it’s only those on the fringe of Windows usage, those who are open to change, who are Apple’s potential customers.
And who is in that group, that ring on the graph?
- People who are open to trying different technology, who aren’t afraid of change
- People who haven’t got significant financial commitment to their computer system
- Following on from the previous point, people who don’t have to invest hundreds or thousands of dollars in new software.
- And on the outer fringe of that group, people who don’t want to change, who are afraid of change, who possibly can’t afford to change, but for whatever reason, are fed up with the Windows environment. Although the reality is, they were always open to change, but needed a much stronger reason than those further inside the ring.
But in all cases, they have to want to change and have reason to do so. Boot Camp will be that reason for many. The Intel switch may have done it for others. The two-button mouse for some. And maybe others are waiting for a spreadsheet in iWork. I, myself, sat in that potential switchers ring for 19 years, waiting for everything to come together to enable me to switch.
Boot Camp I believe is a great move by Apple that will expand its user base. I don’t share Chris’s fears about developers except regarding those who don’t already develop for Macs, such as AutoCAD.
But the new users that Boot Camp brings, will be those who were potential users already, from that ring of “potential switchers”. They will not be from those “nevers” ring.
And that, unfortunately dear fellow Appleites, is why Apple will never wipe the floor with Windows.
del.icio.us
Digg
Facebook
Slashdot
StumbleUpon
Comments
In all truth I have found that windows zealots are simply ignorant to all else so maybe haveing experienced a maqc first hand they will slowly be turned aginst windows.... Just a stupid idea though
I think one of the most important windows users are the ones you left out: the Grandma’s of technology. They are the large group of people who don’t give a damn about any OS just as long as they can play chess/solitare/Whatever. those people are most likely to buy the cheapets and most accessible computer and when those people already don’t have a computer it’s easiest just to go to Future Slop and get a silly little Dell.
A few days ago I went to an Apple reseller store to see if they had new iPod cases. The cases they had were ugly, but… .
On one of Intel iMacs they had on display I saw… Windows XP! (I didn’t ask any questions). Despite the fact I don’t like iMacs (especially “display’s” glossy front surface), the well-known taskbar with the Start button caused an unexpected but pleasant feeling of familiarity in me. ;-] So Bootcamp (well, actually, the upcoming version of OS X) definitely will attract some new customers. However, Apple will never “wipe the floor with Windows” only because of corporate market. (All those crappy old desktops with Windows 98 and Windows 2000...) They will never enter that market for too many reasons...(Good for them).
I like how you spell “Mac Zealots” and “Windows zealots” on the graph. ;-] I guess it’s not a coincidence… And sure you know red is known as a colour of danger… ;-]
as a windows user and new mac user, i have a couple of comments. first, i think the worst thing a potential “switcher” or, better, dual-user, can do is read too much of apple insider or people who regularly use the phrase “cheap dells,” “cheap pcs,” “race to the bottom,” etc. to me, it sounds snobbish and unnecessary. as the article noted, there are lots of people who are perfectly happy with windows because, despite what some want to believe, there’s nothing wrong with viewing/using a computer as a commodity. it’s a tool. if you want your watches or cars or pens designed by porsche, that’s great; but the rest of those who don’t/won’t/can’t shouldn’t be thought of as the great unwashed/lumpen proletariats. there’s noting wrong with people who don’t want to spend their time thinking about the latest os or dvd or whatever; technology has gotten more complicated but not necessarily simpler; thus, you’re not a luddite because you logically/wisely decide that you don’t want to commit the time and money to learning how to make a new os dance. i’m not a programmer, don’t use blue tooth, and am quite happy with my dell. i like my apple, too. as has been said before: this isn’t “religion.” thankfully for apple, the vast majority of potential switchers will never visit apple insider or any other sites where windows users are burned at the proverbial cross; it was funny to me in the beginning, particularly seeing all the end-of-the-world reactions to the whole intel thing. now, it’s tiring. so, i just look for sober apple commentary, appreciating the thoughtful dig at microsoft but not the windows user. maybe some of you should think of windows users this way: hate the sin, love the sinner. it’ll keep people laughing and reading, and not thinking of apple users as duke lacrosse players run amok.
it sounds snobbish and unnecessary.
It has long been my contention that one of the biggest obstacles to Apple making any real inroads in marketshare is Mac users themselves. Many view Macs as a crazy cult, and that observation is not without merit.
The rest of your post makes far too much sense for me to really add to. I agree completely.
There is one big difference that I have noticed between the zealots in both camps (in my own personal experience).
I have experienced that, while Mac zealots are more than wiling to denegrate MS and Windows users, Windows zealots are wiling to do so in public. To a person they don’t even know.
I was in CompUSA about a year ago buying an Apple keyboard for my wife’s ex-mini (we just sold it today on eBay) and as I was perusing the Apple section, I heard a man from acroos the store yell at me. When I looked up to see what he was babbling on about, he looked me straight in the eye and said that I was plain stupid for buying Apple gear and that all Macs ought to be destroyed. He then proceeded to tell me that he sent back 40 Macs from his department because of “all of the viruses” that he had been experiencing with OS X. That Macs are too much trouble. That Macs have ruined computing.
Now although I will take a jab at a Windows user every once in a while if we are in polite conversation, I would never yell at someone from across a store proclaiming that their computing platform of choice sucks and should be abolished.
I think that every Mac user ought to read Macintosh… The Naked Truth to see the kinds of things that some Mac users are subjected to by Windows zealots as well as those who simply have no clue.
Having never met a Windows zealot myself, I’m a little surprised at the seeming commonality of their existence, particularly as observed by Mac zealots.
After all, haven’t Mac zealots long argued that “people love their Macs, no one loves Windows.” Not only do we now have reported cases, these Windows lovers actually rise to the level of “zealot.”
So they either don’t exist at all, or they not only exist but are far ruder (and smellier, I’ll bet) than Mac zealots.
I wonder which is closest to the truth.
FYI: AutoCAD was developed for Mac. It was discontinued years ago (c. mid-90s).
Apparently, it wasn’t profitable enough to develop for two operating systems.
Huh.
I think that one must make the difference between switching to Mac and Swithching to OSX. The majority of people I know that use a PC running Windows agree that OSX is superior to Windows, but the downside is that OSX is linked directly to Mac hardware, which, because of performance, price, upgradeability and possibilities of customization, is not the best choice for many people using PCs.
With this in mind, it would appear utterly absurd for a Windows on a PC user to switch to a Mac for running WIndows.
The only reason for Windows users to switch to Mac is OSX.
Hands up who used to be a Windows zealot and publicly defamed Macs even though they’d never used one? *raises hand sheepishly*
What e:leaf said is far too close to the real truth of the PC world. I was turned against Macs in my computer-literacy infancy. And I stayed that way for a long time, just from all the public defmatory FUD I was digesting from PC magazine writers, friends on my computing course, other PC users or even random people in PC stores. And thus I further spread this fable on myself, even guilty of criticizing an old friend as an idiot when he was so excited when he opened his first Mac.
Yes Beeblebrox, they do exist. I used to be one.
Then I grew up and stopped reading PC magazines -_-
Thank daverojn, that’s a good point. I would put them in the fringe of the possibles as they could go either waqy depending who advises them.
Thanks for the note on AutoCAD, CapnVan. Shame about that. And it’s proobably not alone. I don’t think though that Boot Camp will lead to developers dropping OS X development tho.
Hey Fristy, it was pure accident I spelt Windows zealot with a lower case “Z”. Although, if I thought about it, the spellings I’ve used are appropriate. Musta done it subconsciuosly.
I guess my reasoning is that anyone who is dedicated to Windows is a small “z” zealot. But unlike their Apple counterparts, the don’t evangelize the Windows platform. Although as you pointed out Luke, they do bag Macs. And that’s probably why I’d use a “Z” for Mac Zealots. They’re almost a recognized religion!
Myself… I am a borderline zealot. Beeb helps keep me in check. Altho I have been known to spout total MZ BS on MDN.
Hands up who used to be a Windows zealot and publicly defamed Macs even though they’d never used one? *raises hand sheepishly*
Luke, your ignorance not withstanding, given that it has traveled seamlessly from one platform to another, I certainly don’t doubt their existence, even though I’ve never met one personally.
I’m just trying to reconcile the Mac zealot claim that they do exist on one hand with the Mac zealot claim that they don’t on the other.
But unlike their Apple counterparts, the don’t evangelize the Windows platform. Although as you pointed out Luke, they do bag Macs.
I’m not sure I’d classify someone who doesn’t evangilize the platform as a Windows zealot. In fact, the most consistent criticism of Macs I hear from Windows users might more aptly be described as GAMING zealotry. And those criticisms of the Mac are quite legitimate.
What I’d describe as zealotry is mindless defense or preference of the platform (or the company that makes it, as the case may be) NO MATTER WHAT. I’m sure you know the ones I mean, and you’d be hard pressed to convince me there are as many on the Windows side as there are on the Mac side, even considering the lop-sided marketshare.
The biggest anti-mac thing I’ve seen was at work. A server administrator sent an email to other server administrators (including my team) saying “How’s this for your new server!” - with a picture of the brand new “Apple X-serve”.
He had no smiley face or anything - yet the response from multiple people was a smiley, or “rofl”, etc.
Quite a comment I thought. Not sure what specifically they found funny…
<u>"Hands up who used to be a Windows zealot and publicly defamed Macs even though they’d never used one? *raises hand sheepishly*"<u>
Luke, your ignorance not withstanding...
Oh I definitely agree I was a most ignorant SOB at that time in regards to computing. No question.