Netbook Dissatisfaction Opens the Way for the Rise of the iPhone and MacBook Pro
Two interesting stats this week point to a decline in the netbook and the continual rise of the iPhone. The future looks ultra - that is, ultrasmart phones and ultra portable laptops.
Decline of netbooks
NDP reports quite a large dissatisfaction among netbook owners, 30% to 42% in fact. Information Week writes of the report:
Many consumers who buy netbooks mistakenly believe that the mini-laptops designed for basic computing, such as e-mail and Web browsing, deliver the same functionality as standard notebooks
Only 58% of people who bought a netbook instead of a notebook said they were satisfied with the purchase, compared with 70% of those who planned to buy a netbook from the start.
Those figures tell a very clear story: many netbook buyers are badly informed about the capabilities and usage of netbooks. It's no wonder they are often dissatisfied.
As word spreads - or salesmen and marketers portray netbooks more accurately - this could, or should, see a significant decline in netbook sales.
As a long time netbook skeptic, this comes as no surprise. the netbook is a great and very useful device - for the right user. Many readers here are very satisfied netbook users, but our readers are more technologically informed so would have went in with a clear understanding how the netbook would meet their needs.
I first read about this on MacDailyNews and I loved the comment jocknerd (who I think has posted here too) wrote on there. He suggests that it was the shift from being Linux devices to Windows device that changed user expectations. From the perspective of the technologically uninformed, I can see that makes a lot of sense. If it runs full Windows, why shouldn't it do everything any other Windows computer can do?
Boingo goes the iPhone
The other stat this week comes via TUAW and is from Boingo, who released a report on mobile data access on their airport wireless hotspots. It shows that 89% of mobile device access on those Boingo hotspors is from iPhones. That's quite staggering. It's like daylight second.
Although that figured isn't reflected in marketshare, it shows an interesting shift happening, especially as Blackberry devices garnered an even more staggering (but for the opposite reason) 0.2%. That could be an article in itself.
This strongly suggests people are using their iPhones for the same primary roles as netbooks are intended, that is, email and web access.
For further proof of this online usage of the iPhone, at the time of writing, the iPhone is the second most popular camera on Flickr for photos uploaded. And it wouldn't surprise if Facebook is also seeing significant usage of its iPhone client app. Also, you can bet it won't take long for the iPhone 3GS to become a major contributor of YouTube videos.
So it seems the iPhone is looking like engulfing the netbook market. It may, but there's another player about to rise again.
The revival of the ultra-portable
Apple has got it right with the MBP 13". It tried 12" for a few years and must have found enough user dissatisfaction so that it upscaled slightly to the 13". And MBP 13" gives all the power the average user needs, even able to run Adobe CS apps, but is still reasonably lightweight and portable. It's not a netbook though, and nor is the MacBook Air, instead they are at the larger end of the ultra-portable market.
Once the netbook fad fades you will see attention return to the ultra-portable, i.e. laptops in the 11" to 13" range, which was just gathering steam before netbooks took off.
Netbook sales will decline significantly but most of that loss will be absorbed by the ultraportable market. However, the ultrasmart phones (and especially the iPhone if the others can't get their act together) will also make big gains as people find an ultrasmart phone and an ultraportable cover all their bases. In the future when you're out and about and you want quick access to the web (wherever you are) the iPhone (and one day other ultrasmart phones) will be the first thing you reach for. And when you want to get work done, your ultra portable.
What could be better than an iPhone in your pocket and a MacBook Pro 13 in your briefcase (or backpack)?
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Comments
Surely if a member of the public makes the error of believing a Netbook to be a fully-functional laptop computer, and this is because companies like Acer have not been quick to fix this misconception in their advertising.... That means said consumer does no research before buying, and so would also believe those Microsoft Laptop Hunter ads and buy a PC instead? Therefore making NO opportunity for Apple, since they sell the iPhone as a jumped-up phone, not a pocket computer, and MacBooks cost too much for the average consumer?
Small screens, cramped non-standard keyboards, anemic performance? Keep the screen sizes (8-10 inches), drop the keyboard and add a touch interface, up the memory capacity and I’ll buy a netbook.
This is a kind of typical “everyone is made of money” argument from Apple fans. Hey, my $300 netbook isn’t as powerful as I thought. Therefore it makes sense for me to chuck it for a $2500 smart phone and a $1500 notebook.
You know, my $3000 Corolla has been acting up lately. Clearly this opens the way for me to get a $150K Ferrari supplemented by a $100K Tesla.
“Small screens, cramped non-standard keyboards, anemic performance?”
You talking about netbooks or the iPhone?
Apple plays people’s expectations very well.
For example, if they released a Netbook (iBook) running iPhone OS and iPhone versions of iLife & iWork - people would know it wasn’t a Mac. But they might decide it was VERY useful.
Of course, many many people would complain, and some would crack it to run OSX (slowly). But it would more than meet the expectations of users while achieving everything a Netbook should achieve (IMO)
No offense intended Beeblebrax, but I think you are missing the point of the article. That is that Netbooks are not what MS and pc laptop companies tend to crack them up to be. It isn’t the price of a Mac that creates or deters PC switching (I would know, I am a switcher.) It is the betrayel they feel, when they realize that MS and their partners put out low quality software and sometimes low quality hardware and then pretend like they did us all a favor. They do not do honest advertising. This what I think the writer is pointing out. It is the reason that Mac may just continue to gain market share and customers. Not because they are a perfect company who never puts out a bad product (because they have, imo.) But, because by and large you get what is advertised and often then some. So quit trying to just start an argument for the sake of it. If you like PC then that is cool. Just don’t act like MAC users are people with tons of money that are uppity. Cause I am a total contradiction to that stereotype.
Nor am I in debt, btw.
yeah, I must admit, my MBP 13 which I get next week is being financed via a no interest loan scheme for people on low incomes. (My income for the last 4 years has been around AU$10K p.a.. Seriously.)
So I certainly had no intention of giving the impression of “everyone is made of money”!
However, you are right. A MBP and iPhone is an expensive “ideal” option. I’m not sure you can find a cheap ultrasmart phone (they all seem similar rprice down in Oz), but you certainly could save a bit of money getting a 13” Windows laptop from Dell, HP, Acer etc.
“but you certainly could save a bit of money getting a 13” Windows laptop from Dell, HP, Acer etc. “
No doubt. In fact, for maybe $200 more than a netbook, you could get a “full sized” laptop with more than enough power for the average user.
But that wasn’t your point in the article, Chris. It was that users feeling let down by their $300 netbook will turn around and spend $5000 on two Apple devices (it takes two?) that could do a better job of surfing the web and sending e-mail.
Oh, but not that you have to be made of money to do that.
Sorry, $4000.
beeb, your maths is rather furphirous.
$4000 to replace what? Hmm? A desktop, netbook, and smartphone?
Whether comparing Apples to Apples or PCs to PCs, the cost differences aren’t as great as you’d like us to think.
eg:
(iMac + Dell mini + phone) vs (MacBook Pro 13 + iPhone)
(PC + Dell mini + phone) vs (13” PC laptop + Palm Pre or and Android)
You like to include the cost of the phone plan in the iPhone, but that’s a fairly uniform cost that anyone requiring a cell phone pays. and likewise the data costs. You will encounter them with a netbook if you want access everywhere as you will need a 3G adapter - unless your phone can tether.
As I say, it is more expensive going ultrasmart phone plus an ultraportable, but not as much as you imply.
You can’t really lay all of the blame on networks with Microsoft—remember that many netbooks were initially sold with Linux on them as well. That didn’t prove popular, either.
That said, it still remains to be see how Apple can capitalize on this, given that someone shopping for a $300 notebook is unlikely to buy a $1200 notebook, instead. They’ll wind up getting a $600 or $700 notebook.
The iPhone (in America) is still crippled by being on the worse network possible. (AT&T;).
There is lots of people who has a HackIntosh netbook -including me- and I am very please with its performance and I would even say that it surpasses my expectations because it can run Photoshop, iLife and iWork programs at a fair speed. In deed there are lot’s of things that cannot be done but there is a value on this crappy plastic packs. I am sure that if a hardware manufacturer would build netbooks that are more hardwear compatible with OSX and stylish… you get the picture.
I did spent $200 -on top of the $300 that the netbook cost- on OSX, RAM and a WIFI card in order to have it working almost perfectly but it is worth.
My complaint is netbook’s aesthetics, they are so ugly that when I got my done, the only thing I could say was:
“it’s alive! it’s alive!”
(iMac + Dell mini + phone) vs (MacBook Pro 13 + iPhone)
(PC + Dell mini + phone) vs (13” PC laptop + Palm Pre or and Android)
Chris, you’re shifting the goal posts. Your argument was that the NETBOOK alone would be replaced by an iPhone+Macbook. Now you’re suddenly deciding to lump in a PC and another phone to go along with the netbook just to even up the price comparison?
So without the phone plan but including the data plan (required for an iPhone), you’re still looking at them replacing a $300 netbook with a $2200 solution, instead of them just moving to a slightly more expensive $500-600 Vista or Linux laptop, which seems much more likely.