Predicting MacWorld by Looking Backwards
Apple keynotes. No not the software, the events. Everyone has their own idea of what to expect and, like every year, the predictions for Mac World San Francisco 2007 have flowed.
But year after year I’ve noticed a pattern. Rumorologists predict too many big announcements. Part of the problem is they forget that there’s really only room for two or so major announcements. Any more than that risks the media frenzy being spread too thin.
So, is there a formula? Is there a way of weighting announcements so as to come up with a way to tone down predictions? For example, does Apple do one huge, two majors, three mediums, and three minor announcement at a MacWorld San Francisco? We’d have to gaze into the crystal ball of past MacWorld San Francisco keynotes to see.
Rating announcements
First though, I’ve invented my very own scientific rating system. It’s based on the world renowned Makin & Fudge Methodology. It works by simply making up a rating and fudging it a little. Hence I’ve come up with a scale:
- Minor announcements (eg Sales figures and minor upgrades)
- Medium (eg Third party announcements and demos, standard software and hardware upgrades, new software)
- Major (eg New products or significant new software products)
- Huge! (eg Revolutionary products, either new or updated.)
Looking back
Thanks to MacInTouch who I used to source info on each MacWorld San Francisco since 2000.
2000
Huge!:
- G4 Cube
- Mac OS X
Medium:
- iTools enhancements, including email
Minor:
- Apple Store expanded to include third party products
- Jobs CEO, no longer iCEO
- Sales stats
With OS X and the Cube being huge announcements, there wasn’t room for much anything else of hardly any significance.
2001
Major:
- iTunes (next piece of digital hub)
Medium:
- iDVD
- DVD Studio Pro
- G4 PowerBook Titanium, 15.2”
- Mac OS X goes commercial
- New PowerMacs inc CDRW or SuperDrive and other new options.
- CD-Master software
Minor:
- Mac OS X stats
- G4 shipping news
- Studio Display price drop
Generally a quieter year although, in hindsight, the iTunes announcement was bigger than we realized.
2002
Huge!:
- G4 iMac
Major:
- iPhoto
Medium:
- Final Cut Pro 3 demo
- Aspyr president talks up Mac games
- iBook upgrades
- Adobe InDesign and GoLive demo
- Palm announces support for OS X
- Mathematica, Maya and Affects demos
Minor:
- OS X applications growth
- iMac ad shown
- Sales figures
- Digital hub news
In design, the G4 iMac was one other most revolutionary computers in history, and Apple clearly wanted it to have all the limelight so there were no other hardware announcements of any significance.
2003
Major:
- Safari
- Keynote
- PowerBook 17inch
- PowerBook 12inch
Medium:
- Final Cut Express
- iLife
- Airport Extreme base station
- No more OS 9 boot
Minor:
- Mentioned some third party promos
- Sales figures
One of the big years, with four significant announcements although none quite as major as some from other years.
2004
Major:
- iPod mini
- GarageBand
Medium:
- Xserve G5
- MS Office 2004 demo
- iLife 04
- iPod upgrade
- Final Cut Express 2
Minor:
- OS X transition is over
- iTMS stats and news
- iPod sales info
The iPod mini was the big announcement of MacWorld San Francisco 2004, further evidenced by people’s disappointment after it was discontinued in 2005. GarageBand did seem big at the time but that was disputed by some. However, it has proved to be a significant product that has accounted for heightened interest in the Mac, especially by those musically inclined.
2005
Huge!:
- Mac mini
Major:
- iPod shuffle
- iWork with Keynote and Pages
Medium:
- Tiger preview
- iMac G5 update
- Final Cut Express HD
- iLife 05 (with HD support)
- Car manufacturers to build in iPod adapters
Minor:
- Year of High Definition (HD)
- Sales news
- iTMS stats
2005 probably takes the cake as the biggest year yet, with major introductions in all three product lines (computers, iPods, and software). The Mac mini, despite being small, was huge and quite revolutionary at the time, with even an Intel exec saying that’s what computers should look like. (Although maybe not so surprising when you consider what followed later that year.) iWork looked the goods as an alternative to MS Office for SOHO users, but without a spreadsheet or database, quickly slipped off the radar. Maybe 2007 will change that.
2006
Major:
- Intel MacBook Pro
- First Intel Mac is the iMac
Medium:
- New iPod Radio Remote
- iLife 06
- iWork 06
- OS X 10.4.4 available
- Apple pro apps to be Universal by April
- Microsoft commits to another five years
Minor:
- News from Quark and MS of universal applications
2006’s major announcements of course were the Intel Macs. Apple were careful not to let anything steal their limelight. To many people’s surprise, the MacBook Pro preceded the MacBook. You’ll also notice this is the only year where there is more than one major release on the same product line i.e. in this case, the computers product lines. But Apple countered that by making one a desktop and one a laptop, and one in the consumer market and one in the pro market.
(Now these of course are my subjective ratings and I don’t expect anyone to agree with them, but they do make a reasonable guide.)
One of the most important lessons from this list though is Apple’s avoidance of conflicts of major announcements. When it wants a product to have the spotlight, it clears the decks for it. Apple wants you to buy its new product. It doesn’t want you having to choose between two new products. Even in 2006, there probably weren’t too many people in a conundrum whether to buy an iMac or a MacBook Pro.
Looking forward
MacRumors has conveniently provided a rumors roundup for MacWorld San Francisco, 2007.
Let’s have a look at its list and rate it.
Apple Phone: This one has gained so much momentum at times, that it’s lapped us a couple of times. 2007 looks good for an appearance of an Apple phone, and although expected, it would still be a major move by Apple. If it includes a PDA, it’ll be in the huge category.
8-core Mac Pro: Hardware upgrades of the internal kind only rate as medium, especially those appealing to only a small market. It would take a new external design for this to be major news.
iTV: This we know is coming and MacWorld San Francisco would surely be a certainty for an announcement of its release. It’s highly unlikely Steve would preview it twice. If it’s not quite ready, still expect an announcement with availability in February/March. This is another significant move by Apple, sending it into new markets and so would constitute a major announcement.
Leopard: There’s two parts to the Leopard announcement. Firstly, the almost certainty we will be given a much clearer launch date, and secondly, the secret features. As it stands, this upgrade is relatively standard - a few new features but nothing that’s going to affect the OS landscape much, so rates a medium. However, if the secret features turn out to be significant, it could nudge up making it a major announcement.
New displays with inbuilt iSight: Medium news.
iLife ‘07: As an annual upgrade, iLife is a near certainty, so takes up one of the medium spots. If any of the applications features significant new features or there are new apps added to it, it would become major news.
Video iPod: A full Video iPod would be a major announcement.
Other rumors not mentioned on MacRumors could include:
iWork ‘07: Standard software upgrades rate medium but the inclusion of a spreadsheet would push this to major and a database would certainly make it huge if Apple makes noises about competing with the lower end of the MS Office market.
iTMS expansion: Addition of other movie studios would rate a minor to medium, depending on who and how many. With iTV, there could be some link with iTMS.
Tablet Mac: Not much talk of this one, but would easily be major news if announced.
Mac PDA: Another on no one’s radar except mine. The sheer unexpectedness would make it huge news.
Media Mac: We wish of course, but highly unlikely with the iTV. Major news though if it was to be announced. Could yet be a higher model in the iTV range.
Micro MacBook: As desired by Hadley and many others. Medium to major depending on specs.
GPS in OS X and Macs: Rumors around suggest in 2007 Apple could begin incorporating GPS functionality, even as early as Leopard. Not useful to enough people to rate more than a medium.
My predictions
Pfft! As if! The only safe prediction for MacWorld San Francisco is in the lower end. You can bet your Wii that there’ll be talk of excellent sales figures of hardware and songs off iTMS.
The rest? Pick two majors (but not conflicting ones), three or four mediums and a few minors.
Oh okay, using a combination of logic and my rating system, here’s my list of what to expect in the MacWorld San Francisco 2007 keynote:
2007
Major:
- iTV
- iWork 07 with spreadsheet and database.
Medium:
- Leopard release announced with GUI overhaul (the big secret) but no significant features we didn’t already know about
- iLife 07
- iTMS expansion with other studios coming on board
- Adobe presentation of Creative Suite 3
Minor:
- Updated displays with iSight (I like this rumor given the cessation of the iSight)
- Sales figures
Apple will be looking to score heavily with the iTV, winning the hearts, minds and wallets of lounge room dwellers. Consequently, I don’t expect any other major hardware announcements, so no Video iPods or iPhones.
If iWork doesn’t get a significant addition soon, it’s almost a dead duck, especially if MS Office 2007 ships before it updates. Now is the window of opportunity for iWork.
The current banner on the Apple web page “The first 30 years were just the beginning. Welcome to 2007” suggest Apple entering new markets and new battles. The iTV enters one new market and a complete iWork opens up another.
Note: Since writing this, it’s been made known that the keynote will run for two hours. With that in mind, there’ll either be a few more minor or medium announcements, or an extra major. The most likely additional major announcement for mine would be the Apple cell phone as it is in a different market again and is another new market (the ROKR excepted).
Now it’s your turn. Bearing in mind you can’t get all the “big ones” you want, what does your crystal ball say?
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Comments
I like the Mac phone/PDA combo. Why? iSync. Apple has developed a tremendously stable, integrated syncing system on the backs of other mobile device manufacturers.
I can’t believe that iSync, a major component of Tiger, was developed solely as a framework for letting users sync with devices from OTHER manufacturers. I suspect all we’ve seen so far is really an “advanced beta” of iSync in preparation for the real intent: syncing seamlessly with an Apple-branded device or two.
As for the specific phone/PDA combo, I can’t see Apple making a standalone PDA in today’s market. I’d buy it, but I can’t see it happening. A mobile phone, on the other hand, would have to at LEAST be “smart” enough to handle iTunes transfers and iSync handling of Address Book and iCal info.
If they’re going a step further with the phone and developing their own OS, rather than using an existing OS (which I think would be a given) there’s very little reason to NOT make it a “full” smartphone running some new “Mac OS Mobile.”
One thing that I can surely say is that you will NEVER see a database application added to iWork. Why? Cause Apple already own and markets one. It’s called Filemaker Pro. For some reason it’s not common knowledge that Apple owns this company, but they do and that’s why you always see Filemaker products marketed all over the Apple website.
I will say that I would also love to see another Apple-branded PDA. Phones are cool, but that’s such a hard market to break into and if you don’t have major control over the network or at least your own MVNO, then it may not really be the thing for them to get into. But a PDA? Man I’d buy that in a New York minute!!!!
Minor but perhaps signalling an end to Apple v. Apple: Beatles on iTunes.
@gm80: Apple already has a mobile OS: it’s what powers the iPod. It would be nothing for Apple Developers to add a few features, reconfigure others and co-opt for use on a cell phone/PDA.
I’d like to see a expansion of the Desktop line, with a mid-range tower aimed at the prosumer market. 1 dual core 2 or Xeon processor, a reasonable graphics card and a couple of expansion slots could create a nice bridge between the iMac and Mac Pro lines. There are few who really need 4 cores, let alone 8.
I like the smartphone idea, as opposed to a PDA. PDA sales have slumped recently, and smartphones gained the released marketshare. An iPod smartphones, especially if it’s running “OSX Mobile” could possibly be the ultimate converged device. Call, txt, Mail, iCal, iWork, Safari, Address Book and iTunes all on one device? They’d sell a million…
I’d like to see an Apple-branded car.
Excellent one, tundraboy! I’m adding that to my list. Given the significance, I think it would rate medium rather than minor. Or might even nudge major if Apple announces a Beatles iPod too.
Lol, Beeb. There’s a whole article full of jokes in that!
OK, I just have to get this out there… in case it happens.
The return of HyperCard! Using the new Core Animation and years of work with FileMaker, HyperCard will visually display database information like your iPhoto images, your iTunes information (album art, etc.) your contacts etc. in a 3D file card “filp through” effect (turn off 3D with a click if you prefer the “flat” look).
Of course, make it easy to create your own “stacks” of information on whatever you please. Leave enough out for a logical upgrade to the iWork version of FileMaker (note, no PRO), and enough out of FileMaker to make the Pro version a valid stand alone aplication.
Good idea, huh?
Spot on, tonymosa.
Also, AppleWorks has a database, so that would indicate Apple doesn’t mind having a database in its office suite. And as you suggest, FileMaker in iWork woud be a lite version - though an option for the Pro version would be good.
My vote for huge would be “OSX mobile” also. The iPhone, PDA, etc. will be the end result of that that development. Just having OSX to go would rule above all else. Well, hmmm, okay the Newton 2007 would kick butt also.
Okay, I’m going out on a limb now. Beatles on iTunes AND Macca onstage.
True, that Apple may have other software which deals with Database management. But like in Microsoft Office, how many of the features does an average user end up using. iWorks is all about the home user, who has basic functionality and requires a software that does not need immense IQ to start using.
iWorks upgrade will be a nice one at that since, me who is a new Mac user, I know only about iWorks and how confortable I am with it, and wouldnt mind upgrading to the newer version. iWorks update also confirms with the new Apple philosophy of creating more “switchers” like me, who were hardcore windows users once upon a time, and who after getting themselves a mac believe that they wasted 10 years of their lives using an OS demanded more time in taking care of itself than offering any kind of productivity.
Waiting for the iPhone eagerly. No matter whatever features Nokia or Motorola offers, doesnt seem to be satisfying anymore, and Apple being the sport they are, iPhone is going to be more than huge !!!
Nicely written article, everything above was already in the mind and now we can find it in one place. Makes one wait for Steve’s keynote more eagerly.
Here’s another mad prediction: Dell or HP licensed to sell Macs.
The “One more thing...”
i.e. “Oh - one more thing, the computer I’ve been using today is made by Dell/HP” (connected to one of the new Cinema Displays).
A headless Dell/HP Mac rises from the floor. Jobs: “It’s ugly, but it is Mac. The modders are gunna love it.”
And then proceeds to announce enterprise push.
Chris,
that would be unbelievable! And would honestly practically bring tears to my eyes...but I really don’t see it happening. Apple just doesn’t seem to care about the enterprise market.
Yeah, a Dell Mac is always a chance, but Apple chasing the enterprise is a fantasy. And rightly so. There’s just too many industry specific and in-house apps that would require convincing developers to switch. At council, we had prob near a dozen.