Predicting a MacWorld Megaflop Prediction

MacWorld SF is just around the corner and MacWorld means two things: new products
and utter failures. Generally people are excited about what Steve Jobs is going to unveil
in his keynote presentation but once he actually reveals the new items people are less
than impressed. Well to put more of a point on it they are usually fairly awed by the
product until Steve (We’re on a first name basis, I call him Steve and he calls me
customer #955737413678) lets the price slip.

The drill is generally as follows:

“We realized that the market needed an easy to use Bluetooth can opener”
Crowd leans forward

“And we’ve addressed that need. We’re announcing the new iUnlid. I can’t tell you how
great this is. It opens cans and scans them for RFID chips.”

The crowd has been expecting the iUnlid and the scanning functionality but they’re
waiting for something more.

“Other Bluetooth enabled can openers exist, but they are difficult to set up and maintain.
And they are big, the iUnlid is only a half inch wide and one inch tall. Its about as thick
as a matchbook.”

The crowd is biting by this point, they’re into Steve’s description of the best can opener
ever. There is a strong undercurrent of anticipation waiting to erupt in a strange geek orgy
but they are waiting for that one thing that separates the iUnlid from every other
Bluetooth enabled can opening device on the market. Face it, these people are in the
“know” when it comes to technology, they don’t want to go Oprah crowd nuts until they
are certain the new product exceeds their expectations.

Steve Continues:
“Now most of the people in this market offer a blade based opener for 99 dollars. Our
opener is laser based, no cut fingers, for $399.”
He had them and then he lost them. People didn’t want to hear that price point. An
audible groan is heard throughout the room. Those watching the QuickTime simulcast
agree. “The iUnlid is pretty cool,” they think “but who would waste that kind of money
when something cheaper that does the job exists?”

I know the whole thing seems farfetched. Apple’s products are always miles ahead of the
competition right? Well, in fact they are but you’d never know it from initial reaction.
Take, for example the iPod. I think it is safe to say that the iPod has been fairly
successful. But initial reaction by the tech savvy was less than enthusiastic. Personally I
wondered why anyone would actually spend long green for a hard drive that played
music. Those more tech savvy than I roundly panned the original iPod. Let us take a trip
back and see what a Slashdot editor had to say:

“No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.”

Not exactly the most prescient statement.

The iPod isn’t the only example of an eventual Apple success welcomed as if it were a
headless mouse left on the doorstep in an attempt of supplication by the house feline. No,
pretty much every Apple introduction gets bashed heavily. The iPod mini was criticized for costing far too much in comparison to a full size iPod. The G5 iMac was slaughtered for its supposedly substandard video card (though few noted that the card is shared by the mid line G5 tower). The examples are seemingly endless.

Still, sometimes the naysayers get it right. Take the G4 cube. No one
criticized the cube for being too clunky but people wondered just how it would fit in to
Apple product line. In this case the critics were correct, the cube was a miserable failure. A miserable failure just about everyone wanted to own but a failure nonetheless.

So this year when Apple introduces the latest and greatest (what this will be I have no
idea) and you’re reading the reaction, remember that the initial reaction is usually fairly
far off the mark. The best measure, well the best measure short of sales figures, for the
products acceptance won’t be available until a month or two after the product is revealed.
Owner reports will begin dribbling in, reviews will be written and you’ll get the feeling of
just how excited the general public is about the product. At this point the one-time
detractors of Apple’s most recent introduction will start to soften their stance. Within a
month the same folks may actually be singing the product’s praises. This is called
bandwagon jumping (notice that sudden explosion of Red Sox jerseys?) and when it
starts happening you’ll know Apple has hit another home run.