The Curse of the Apple Rumor Mill

by Devanshu Mehta May 11, 2006

Once upon a time, Apple rumors were few and far between—when Apple rumors were cherished, looked forward to and accurate. The Apple rumor was a beautiful thing and the rumor site rivalries were interesting. Back then, Apple rumor sites were the exception—there were few of them, there was not too much to speculate about, and before the spectacular growth of the iPod and iTunes, there was little interest outside the core community. That was when Apple was a computer company.

Apple Creates a Monster
With the iPod, iTunes and related announcements, Apple kept people watching the company on their toes. From larger hard disks for the original iPods, to the Mini, to the Shuffle, the Nano, photo, video and so on, for a long time the rumor sites could barely keep up. For a long time, the true story about Apple was more fascinating than the rumors that circled it.

Also, Apple was a success story that rose out of the dot-com ashes. It was innovating while everything around it fell to the ground, which made it an obvious Wall Street darling. And what Wall Street giveth…

The Media and Wall Street Feed the Monster

Where new stock market champions rise, the financial media follows—and since the Apple product was cool and consumer-oriented, the mainstream media was close behind. The iPod became the eye-catcher of choice—every contest had an iPod as a prize and every news source had a story about the iPod or Apple all the time. Most still do.

The media loved it- here was a stock market favorite that with a coolness factor. The average media consumer had heard of an iPod and wanted one. Until, of course, everyone who wanted an iPod got one.

The Monster Outgrows Apple
The media, in turn, fuels the rumor sites. Who could resist the urge to report that bit of speculation, overheard gossip or unverified email when it could result in your story being quoted by the Wall Street Journal? Who would cover any other company (except maybe Google), when an Apple rumor could get you on the front page of the New York Times and Slashdot on the same day? Lately, we have had thousands of rumors competing for our attention most of which are not backed up and are never followed up. A few web sites have a pretty decent success rate, but in general there is just too much noise.

Which brings us to the present situation. Everyone who wants a Mac has a Mac or will very soon. The switch to Intel and the introduction of Bootcamp are great developments, but the market-share of Macintosh computers has not changed substantially in the years of rumor frenzy.

At the same time, the iPod has seen meteoric growth that fuelled rumors that fuelled more meteoric growth until now, when we have reached a point where almost everyone who wants an iPod has an iPod and the only thing that can further growth of market share is a tremendous innovation in the device. In normal circumstances, a new innovation from Apple would fuel market interest, media interest, average consumer interest and the Mac fanatic’s interest. Except that it may not because…

We have been rumored out. We have heard about the fabled 4-inch screen iPod, the true video iPod, gaming iPods, eBook iPods, DVR devices, DVR iPods and many more things that have brought us to the point where if Apple were to release a 4-inch 100GB Video iPod DVR, many among us may shrug and say, “That’s cool, but I heard that rumor months ago.” Based on our expectations, no matter what Apple does with the iPod next, it may come up short.

Like I said, we have been rumored out. Elements within the stock market have used the rumor-mongering for quick gains, as witnessed by the rollercoaster that Apple’s stock has been around key Apple announcements. The mainstream media looks to Apple web sites for tech page fillers when they run out of stories. Sometimes, I envy the Windows users with Creative MP3 players who listen to music bought from the Real Rhapsody store for the peaceful rumor-free life they must live.

Meanwhile, at Apple
Life must go on. The company still continues to surprise us—even if it is not enough for some—in areas we were not expecting, such as Bootcamp. And Apple continues to innovate in ways that most rumor sites do not cover, such as Aperture. Its gift of frenzied innovation is also its curse, as we expect Apple to conquer new markets with the same speed and razzle dazzle. Maybe we can all take a step back to reality and not let the rumors dictate our expectations.

Comments

  • Well said, Devanshu. I particularly liked your closer.

    Maybe we can all take a step back to reality and not let the rumors dictate our expectations.

    Chris Howard had this to say on May 11, 2006 Posts: 1209
  • “Everyone who wants a Mac has a Mac or will very soon.”

    Huh?

    CapnVan had this to say on May 11, 2006 Posts: 68
  • @CapnVan, that line meant should be clear from the sentence that follows it.

    the market-share of Macintosh computers has not changed substantially in the years of rumor frenzy.

    i.e. even in all the hype surrounding Apple as a company, there isn’t any indication that there are more potential switchers than before.

    Devanshu Mehta had this to say on May 11, 2006 Posts: 108
  • @MacGlee, this could be true if there were only a few elements fuelling the rumor mongering. The truth, however, is that the financial press, the mainstream media, rumor sites, Mac fans and even sites like this one are all part of the cycle.

    Devanshu Mehta had this to say on May 11, 2006 Posts: 108
  • “...the market-share of Macintosh computers has not changed substantially in the years of rumor frenzy.

    i.e. even in all the hype surrounding Apple as a company, there isn’t any indication that there are more potential switchers than before…”

    What makes you say that? Any numbers backing this up?

    According to Gartner Research, Apple’s U.S. market share was 3.2% in 2004. Which was 6th place among computer manufacturers. It was 5.8% in 2005 (4th place)... While that still isn’t much, it nevertheless is quite an impressive increase in one year.

    cynyc had this to say on May 11, 2006 Posts: 1
  • There don’t need to be more potential switchers than before for the statement there isn’t any indication that there are more potential switchers than before, there just needs to be more such people than own macs, which clearly there are.

    Benji had this to say on May 12, 2006 Posts: 927
  • Sorry I mean for the stamement “...” to be false...

    Benji had this to say on May 13, 2006 Posts: 927
  • Maybe we can all take a step back to reality and not let the rumors dictate our expectations.

    Oh I did this ages ago. I have stopped visiting those rumor sites simply because it’s so much more exciting to watch the Keynote ‘live’ with no idea of what’s coming. I strongly suggest it.

    However saying that, it’s more difficult than I thought to avoid the rumor mill :/ Simply because news sites post rumors too, grr :(

    Luke Mildenhall-Ward had this to say on May 14, 2006 Posts: 299
  • Maybe Apple Matters could start a revolution by either having a moratorium on rumours altogether, or zoning them into a separate area?

    Benji had this to say on May 14, 2006 Posts: 927
  • However saying that, it’s more difficult than I thought to avoid the rumor mill :/ Simply because news sites post rumors too, grr :(

    And so do your BSSs like Apple Matters and Mac360. Which just about means everywhere except software sites are spreading rumors.

    So in the end, all you can do is accept that the keynotes will always be an anti-climax because:
    1) You already know what’s coming
    2) What does arrive is never as highly specced as the rumors would have you believe.

    On the plus side, there’s nothing better than bashing rumor sites when they get it wrong smile (just kiddin…)

    Chris Howard had this to say on May 14, 2006 Posts: 1209
  • Yah, the love for Think Secret is flowing thick and fast in the interweb these days…

    I have stopped visiting those rumor sites simply because it’s so much more exciting to watch the Keynote ‘live’ with no idea of what’s coming. I strongly suggest it.

    I admire your will, I really do… (can anyone say “addiction”?)

    Benji had this to say on May 14, 2006 Posts: 927
  • It’s not easy =S

    I’m craving to go to MacRumors, with all this talk in here, now… only for a quick peek at the top article.. I won’t even read the details =S Honest…


    No, Luke… the force is strong in this one. You can do it!

    Luke Mildenhall-Ward had this to say on May 14, 2006 Posts: 299
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